What I Want For Today

  • Posted by
  • on July 15th, 2011

Like my kids, the market rarely does what I want, when I want.  But since I won’t be available to post an update later today, why not share my dream scenario?

Big gap up that doesn’t immediately fade.  Shorts in trouble start covering.  It looks almost real, but by 11:00 it’s fading.  By 12:00 we’re flat.  But $GOOG is still up large, carrying some glamour names up with it.  Rather than those names succumbing to the $ES_F again, they take charge after a couple of bear attempts and stocks close nicely higher.

It gets pooh-poohed as a summer Friday, options expiration on top of that.  But my stats show that while stocks aren’t retaking their 7/7 highs, a large number of them have shaken off the index and rallied throughout the day.  Downside is removed, and though upside is limited to those recent highs, the pervasive gloom from debt ceiling discussions and Eurozone troubles gets worked off and individual names/sectors can be released to their own product cycle trends.

Wrote that last night, so far that’s not exactly it…stocks rallied but are slowly fading before 10AM.  I’m not a believer that the same exact pattern can repeat for a 4th consecutive day, but I’ll let others duke it out and wait for a setup that looks cloudy but is actually fog about to burn off.  The early & incomplete evidence stacks up as follows:

I won’t be around to share the update later, but I know exactly what I need to see to prompt action.  A panicky selloff into the lunch hour, the 2 to 3PM hour, or into the close.  Outside of that, I look to sit tight and wait for next week.  A break back above $SPX 1328 would prompt me to take off my hedges, but that would likely be accompanied by some “great” news from DC so I’m leery of following that signal.

I’ve been known to bring my laptop in the golf cart, but not this afternoon…the battle lines are strong enough that a simple look from a distance will answer my questions.  I’m going to enjoy a sunny day on the links.  What started as a family golf outing 12 years ago with my Grandpa has become the Jack Fogarty Memorial(he made it to 10 of  ’em).  He’d appreciate the hard work but more likely appreciate an 80 degree day with 36 golfers topped off with a toast on the 19th hole terrace.  Hit ’em well today, I’ll try and do the same…

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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