Talking Price in Charlotte

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  • on September 13th, 2011

Anyone who follows my stuff knows I’m fond of price analysis.  For me, it’s a shortcut to the fundamental momentum and, more importantly, allows me to lay out clear rules on when I will or won’t buy or sell a stock.  In some corners, it’s known as technical analysis.  In others(mistakenly in my opinion), voodoo nonsense.

Whatever your viewpoint, it’s hard to believe that even a dyed-in-the-wool fundamentalist doesn’t recognize the impact of behavior on both the valuation and direction of markets.  They may not adopt its tenets, but in my opinion anyone responsible for managing someone else’s money has a responsibility to use something concrete as a risk management tool for those times we’re, ummm…wrong?

I couldn’t be happier to help spread the gospel of price analysis with a great event at the University of North Carolina-Charlotte.  On October 8, the founder of the Market Technicians Association(MTA), Ralph Acampora will spend the entire day teaching a class he calls “Introduction to Technical Analysis”.  Even those who already “know it all” should be able to benefit from the experience of one who has spent 50 years honing his craft.  On top of that, Craig Johnson of Piper Jaffray in Minneapolis will be joining Ralph to share ways in which he blends technical research with fundamentals using his background as both a Chartered Financial Analyst(CFA) and Chartered Market Technician(CMT).

I’ll share an anecdote from each that I heard this weekend…consider it a preview.  Ralph told me about the time in the 1970s when one of the world’s largest pension fund managers had a “bat line” to his desk.  He did his own company research, buying only companies whose management he had deeply vetted.  Once he owned his position, he no longer trusted management and his ally became the chart…if Ralph said it was breaking down he sold 25% immediately.  If the fundamental analyst couldn’t convincingly state that the price action was wrong, he sold another 25%.  Only then did he resume his analysis of the company.

Not to be outdone, Craig offered a response he often gives when his use of technical analysis is mocked by a prospective fund manager.  He draws a big P and E, and says “You look at the E, and I look at the P.  I think my way is a shortcut to the answer, but either way we’re just starting the same puzzle from different sides.”  Craig can hold his own with anyone, his monthly research books look to me like an old Daily Graphs book on steroids.

You already know a number of CMTs who’ve made the jump to Twitter, from my local friends @carsondahlberg and @kirknorthington to @harmongreg and @mebfaber and @allstarcharts and @gtlackey.  Someday I’ll get there, but they’ve already gone through the rigor that goes with passing the CMT coursework and I learn something every time they speak.  On top of that, friendships with popular StockTwits users @crosshairtrader, @gratefultrader, @milktrader, @iron100, & @rossmanfx have been strengthened at our local meetings.  Hope you can join us for a day of lively discussion and being the South, some post-event college football watching.

Details and (free)registration: http://www.mta.org/eweb/dynamicpage.aspx?webcode=charlotte

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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