A Winning Mindset

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  • on January 12th, 2011

After putting a hoop over the door in my son’s room, I was dismayed to hear him screaming every time he missed, to the point of tears after his latest cold streak.  Being only 5 years into this parenting thing means every day brings a lesson, so what do I do now?  He’s into numbers and dates and scores, so I said “Why don’t I help you make a calendar, and each day you can write the score of how many baskets you make in 20 minutes?”.  He bought it, and is now 3 weeks into his shooting and recordkeeping career.

But of course, the lesson was for me…we learn from our failures but are driven by our successes.  That taste of mastery, once felt, becomes intoxicating to pursue, the source of will that keeps us practicing so hard.  For him, it was just a matter of channeling his focus on the wins and away from the losses.  I could use a little more of this, as I dissect failing trades to no end and forget that if I didn’t have successes I wouldn’t still be doing this 20 years in.

How about the market’s successes and failures?  I listed bull and bear evidence last week, with some wear showing on this bull but trends still intact.  Since then, I think the bullish evidence has held, and the bearish evidence has retreated.  Specifically, we had a mixed jobs report that didn’t take the market down, we’ve seen junk take a breather, and industrials have stepped forward instead of backward against the recent $USDX strength.  Rather than continuing to retreat, breadth has stabilized and now has a chance to act as untapped fuel if an advance takes hold.

One or two days from a high, I’m not a buyer.  Survive those critical days with breadth intact, and we have to view it as a resting/rested bull…only useless opinions like “too late”, “too high”, “lousy macro” can keep me from embracing the evidence.  I had 58 long candidates and 3 shorts on last night’s scans that qualified under basic reward:risk guidelines.  After a big up day/week, that would be attributed to the index, but after going sideways for a week it reveals an underlying strength while we debate sentiment “extremes”.  Let’s not look past emerging winners just because we’re focused on a few leaders that have stopped clicking.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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