“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.” Stephen Hawking Between the shaky economy and the start of football season, the world is full of predictions. Throw in an Atlantic storm or two, and my pet peeve is really getting tested. Two reasons I get annoyed: 1) Why does [...]
Do we pay to watch the average athlete compete? No, even the “journeyman” professional is among the most exceptional of superior participants in the sport. What about how the average fund manager fails to beat his/her benchmark? Duh, how could they? As a group, they are the average…minus expenses, of course. We need to seek [...]
One shocking hit makes you wonder. Two might make you run. Could the offers to buy Potash and McAfee usher in a new phase, maybe even the long-awaited “stock pickers” market? I think so. Don’t get me wrong, the bear case for equities has a ton of things going for it. Secular deleveraging, cyclical profit [...]
“Any expectation about the market’s behavior that is specific, well-defined, or rigid(instead of being neutral and open-ended) is unrealistic and potentially damaging.” Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone Ever now and then I grab a classic trading book off the shelf, and thumb through a few pages. Lately, it’s been “Trading in the Zone” by [...]
“I measure what’s going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am, so I bend.” Martin Zweig Anyone reading my posts knows I place huge emphasis on relative strength. Not chart indicator RSI, but the comparison of one stock vs. [...]
For awhile I was posting a weekly update showing my trend measures of global asset class. Where did that go? First of all, asset class trends unfold in a slower motion than individual stocks, so a monthly list is more appropriate than a weekly. Second, identifying trends is where the homework begins…from there, it’s measuring [...]
“Men, it has been said, think in herds; and they go mad in herds, and recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds I can make the bear case all day long. Spiraling debt, higher taxes & regulation, real estate overhang, European austerity, Chinese tightening yada-yada. [...]
“I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.” Lloyd Bentsen After recent trader/investor meetings, I realize almost everyone claims to be a contrarian. Why is that? I can only speculate, but I suspect it has to do with overconfidence and anchoring. We know where prices were, and [...]
“In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.” Thomas Jefferson That gem of a quote came to my inbox courtesy of Charles Kirk, [...]
I’m a huge fan of measuring market breadth. It’s the primary reason I focus on U.S. equities vs. other markets like forex, bonds, commodities, etc. I feel I have a better chance at edge when I can see beyond the stock market and look at the market of stocks. It’s so easy for any one [...]
I rely on Abnormal Returns, The Kirk Report, and Reformed Broker to curate day in and day out, but today I found too much goodness across the Internets to not share them in a post. Enjoy! The “Death Cross” is NOT a trading system. Graphic from The Chart Store and charts from John Lee Condor [...]
In prior posts, I’ve debated fundamentals vs. technicals. Inside of technical analysis, trend following vs. mean reversion is another subject of debate. I do employ mean reversion techniques to my entries and exits to improve pricing, but am firmly in the trend following camp when it comes to selection. This starts with my belief that [...]
Miami of Ohio is 1-0 all time vs. Florida...probably not enough to build model, huh? - posted on 03/09/2010 20:27:46
RT @alphatrends: the week is essentially done, but i will be live on http://www.stocktwits.tv at close if you are still around $$ - posted on 03/09/2010 15:53:22
@KevinMHughes are those on the front 9 or back? - posted on 03/09/2010 10:29:36
RT @gbattle: This is funny on many levels RT @AndySwan Twitter has 145m users in the same way @MikeTyson has $400m in career earnings - posted on 03/09/2010 10:15:52
@attitrade @alphatrends @KevinMHughes @daytrend @misstrade @arupdates thx, my prediction for next week is a flat Monday - posted on 03/09/2010 10:14:30
